MAIN WEATHER AND CLIMATE TRAITS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS OF JULY 2026

Air temperature

Throughout July, air temperatures in most of the ETR remained close to normal or even much lower than that sometimes. In the Central Black Earth Region (including Tambov and Voronezh), the average air temperature in the second decade was 2° lower than normal, and in the Novgorod, Tver and Vologda Regions, new temperature minima were recorded. Upon that, the thermometer readings dropped below +5°. Only in the last days of the month, abnormal warmth came to the north-east of the ETR and partly to the Volga region, and air temperatures reached +30-34° in the north or up to 40° in the Middle Volga region.

The picture was completely different in the Urals and to the east of them, where the weather was notably warmer than usual for most of the month. The air would heat up to +35° in the southern Urals and in Altai, and new temperature maxima were repeatedly recorded in the north of the Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk Territories, in Yakutia, Kamchatka and Taimyr, in Evenkiya and the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District. However, surprising colds were unavoidable: thus, extremely cold air permeated to southern Siberia at the end of the first decade. New daily minima of air temperature were measured in the Tomsk and Kemerovo Regions, as well as in the Murmansk Region at the beginning of the third decade.

On the monthly scale, abnormally cold air prevailed in most of the ETR with the monthly-averaged temperature anomalies reaching -1° or higher; the situation in the extreme north-east of the country was similar. All the rest of Russia was heated by abnormally warm air: the monthly-averaged air temperature in the Urals, in eastern Primorye, in parts of western Siberia and in the north was two to four degrees above normal.

This July was the warmest in Russia in the entire history of meteorological observations since 1891. Its average temperature surpassed the previous record-breaking value set in 2010. In the Asian Territory of Russia, the average temperature in July was also all-time high (beating the record of 2021). July 2026 was the second warmest in the Ural and Siberian Federal Districts.

Abnormally warm weather spread over all of East Asia. In China, this July was the second warmest in the history of observations, its average temperature yielding only to the unprecedented value of the previous year. Air temperatures in Japan exceeded +40° on numerous occasions, and this July entered the top five hottest in the history of the country. The monthly-averaged air temperature on the Korean Peninsula, in Japan and in the central and western regions of China was two or more degrees higher than normal.

In South-East and South Asia, the monthly-averaged air temperature was above-normal. In India, it was among the top five highest in the history of observations.

In the Middle East (in Iran), the normal value was exceeded by 2° or more, while the temperature in the Near East was normal. The difference was that in the central and southern regions it happened against the background of weak positive anomalies, whereas in the north (in eastern Turkey and parts of the South Caucasus), against the background of weak negative ones.

Residents of Central Asia experienced unprecedented heat: the thermometer readings rose to +42…48°. New air temperature highs were recorded everywhere across the region. The monthly-averaged temperature was 2-4° above normal.

The weather in North Africa was hot; the monthly-averaged air temperature anomalies along the Mediterranean coast and in the central part were in excess of 2°, and the air heated to 45-47°. July 2026 was the second warmest in history.

In Western Europe, extreme heat was observed for the second month of this summer, with temperatures in France and Spain reaching 40-45°. This July in the latter two countries was the hottest in the history of meteorological observations, while in the UK and in Ireland, the second hottest. Catastrophic fires spread over, and rivers were shallowing under abnormal heat so that their water levels were dropping to all-time minima. As per reports from Switzerland, all the snow collected in the mountains in winter had completely melted by July 26, and from now on, the ice congested during the previous years would be melting until an advent of new snowfalls that usually occurs in October: this is the second earliest date of full snow clearance in the Swiss Alps. Earlier than this year, it occurred only once in history (in July 2022), and one day earlier only. The excess heat in Western Europe (with anomalies of +2-4°) was compensated by the colds in the east of the continent where the monthly average temperature was close to normal, yet at the background of weak negative anomalies. In Ukraine, new daily temperature minima were measured on some days.

This July was the hottest in history of the United States: the monthly-averaged air temperature was above-normal everywhere save for Alaska. In the central and western parts of the country, this anomaly was +2…3° or more. The same anomalies were observed in the central part of Canada, while in the rest of the US, the values were normal, with weak positive anomalies. This month in Canada was the fifth warmest on record. Air temperatures in Mexico and in Central America were roughly normal.

In the Arctic, July 2026 was last in the top five warmest in history.

As for the Northern Hemisphere, this July was the warmest in the meteorological annals since 1891, beating the record set in 2024.

In Moscow, the average temperature in July was 19.8°, with an anomaly of +0.1°.

Sea surface temperature

The major feature of SST in the Pacific Ocean is the development of El Niño. The area occupied by high SST anomalies (+2…3° or more) significantly increased since the previous month to cover the entire water body from the South American coast between Columbia and Chile as well as from Mexico to 160W, i.e., virtually to the middle of the Pacific Ocean. This should certainly have affected climatic temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean – and affected greatly, indeed!

In July 2026, the average SST of the Pacific Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere reached an absolute maximum in the history of observations. Apart from El Niño zone, high positive anomalies settled in the central part of the Ocean where they were even higher, +4° or more. Abnormally warm water was also observed along the Asian coast.

Mathematical models predict that El Niño will intensify until the end of the year, and extend to a period including the spring 2027.

High SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean dominated in by far tinier area than in the Pacific Ocean, even considering the relative sizes of the two. Abnormally warm water was observed along the coasts of Europe and South Africa, and in the Greenland Sea in the north. In the adjacent Barents and Kara Seas of the Arctic Ocean, anomalies reached +2…4°. The SST at the temperate latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean was significantly lower than normal, anomalies of cold water reaching one degree. 

Precipitation

This July in Russia was reach in participation: the country received it in normal or above-normal amounts as a rule. Heavy rain passed across the ETR in Central Russia, in the Volga region, as well as in the west, in the Kaliningrad Region for example. The daily precipitation totals could be as high as 20-40 mm, and in the monthly terms, they added up to values three times above normal in the Kaliningrad Region, 2.0-2.5 above in the Republics of Chuvashia and Mordovia, and 1.5 or more times above in the Republics of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Crimea, in the Luhansk People Republic, as well as in the Moscow, Kostroma, Yaroslavl, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Tula, Orel, Tambov, Voronezh, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanovsk and Penza Regions. The shortage of precipitation was observed in the North Caucasian republics only, along with Kalmykia and the Astrakhan Region.

The weather in the Urals remained rainy, as in June: there, the monthly precipitation totals were normal or above-normal, or twice higher than normal in the Sverdlovsk Region. Similarly, precipitation in Siberia was normal or above-normal almost everywhere. Heavy rains fell in Cis-Baikal and in the south of West Siberia, bringing up to 20-25 mm of atmospheric moisture each day.

In the Far East, precipitation in all constituent entities of the Federation with the exception of Sakhalin and the north-eastern region was also normal or above-normal, with intensive rain in the Primorye Territory and the Amur Region where from 50 to 100 mm of rainwater accumulated daily. Rains in Buryatia and in Trans-Baikal bought up to 30-50 mm of moisture per day.

Monsoon downpours inundated China and the Korean Peninsula, leading to one of the most severe floods of the year in China at the end of the month. Showers hit the eastern, southern and central parts of China where the monthly-averaged precipitation totals in certain places two to three times greater than normal. Heavy rains in some regions of South Korea brought up to 200 mm of daily precipitation.

In the countries of South-East Asia, the situation was similar.

Heavy monsoon rains deluged India, Pakistan and Bangladesh where the rivers overflowed their banks, and flooded huge areas. The normal precipitation values in Pakistan and Bangladesh as well as in the north and north-east of India were exceeded by two to three times.

Dry weather prevailed in the Near and Middle East where the normal precipitation value was only reached in some places of Turkey and Yemen.

Most of Central Asia was also dry: rains fell solely in the south-west of Kazakhstan, in the north of Uzbekistan, in Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan resulting in normal or above-normal monthly totals, and were very heavy in some locations. In Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan, these rains caused floods.

In North Africa, rains passed along the Mediterranean coast and in a number of countries in the Sahel region. The rest of the territory was almost rainless.

Western and Central Europe received virtually no atmospheric moisture this July. Mass media in France reported the severe drought in the country. Soil conditions pointed to an impending disaster. In Ireland and Spain, July was the driest in history. Rains in Europe fell in the east and north of the continent only, bringing normal or increased precipitation quantities.

The eastern provinces of Canada received abundant precipitation, two to three times greater than normal in some places. In the rest of the country, the monthly precipitation totals were normal or less than that. In the eastern United States, precipitation was normal or above-normal, up to two times the normal amount in some places. A similar picture was observed along the Gulf of Mexico, and partly in the west of the country. In the rest of the USA, almost no precipitation was observed save for the state of Alaska where they were plentiful.

In Moscow, the monthly precipitation total amounted to 68 mm, which is the lower limit of the normal values.